Turnout

What will turnout be like at the end of the day. Early reports are suggesting that turnout is way up, and people in the state are expecting around 500,000 votes to be cast today, which would be a record.

My guess is that it'll be a little higher than that. In 2004, about 218,000 people showed up to vote in the New Hampshire Democratic primary (and there was no Republican contest). If the pattern from Iowa holds, I think we can expect a big increase in the number of people turning out for the Dem side of the election. How big? Well, in 2004, turnout for the Iowa caucuses was about 120,000. This year, it was almost 240,000, fully double the previous election. Will turnout double in New Hampshire? Unlikely. For one thing, there was more room to grow in Iowa. Caucuses, because they are so structured, almost always lead to low turnout. In New Hampshire, primary turnout was even pretty big in 2004 (about 50% of registered Dems and Independents voted in the 2004 primary compared to only 15% of registered Dems and Inds who caucuses in Iowa in 2004). For another, only 675,000 people cast ballots in the general election in 2004. I would be shocked if today's vote totals approached that number.

So, turnout is unlikely to double, as it did in Iowa, but it's still going to be big. I'd guess the Dem totals gets close to 300,000 and the GOP will be up towards 250,000.

Who is the big winner with all this turnout? Obama, first, and the Democrats in general, second. New voters lean to Obama big time, so he should get a little boost out of this. But it's worth noting that in 2000 (the last time both parties had a competitive primary here), the GOP candidates outpolled the Dems by 80,000 votes (and then Bush went on to win NH in the general election).