Monday, January 07, 2008

New Hampshire Polls - GOP

On to the Republicans. Here are the weighted polling averages for the GOP candidates:

McCain - 33.3%
Romney - 28.7%
Huckabee - 11.3%
Giuliani - 8.9%
Paul - 8.1%
Thompson - 2.9%
Other/DK - 6.8%

Again, we need to guess at what those undecideds will do. This is much harder to figure out than for the Dems. New Hampshire voters have gotten a good look at both McCain and Romney, so it's possible that the undecideds won't go to them. On the other hand, there is a chance that some of those folks used to be in the Romney camp and have been shaken loose by his Iowa loss and the McCain resurgence. Some of them could go back to Romney, and some could break loose to someone else.

The overall trend in New Hampshire has been towards McCain, but there doesn't appear to be much of a micro-trend within this data. On balance, I'd say this all points to a slim but solid McCain victory. Here's my final prediction:

McCain - 36%
Romney - 29%
Huckabee - 12%
Paul - 9%
Giuliani - 8%
Thompson - 3%

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