Super Tuesday Analysis, Part I

In four days twenty-one different states will hold their nomination contests, and America will have its first semi-national primary. For both parties, but especially for the GOP, the results will play a huge part in deciding the nominee.

Let's take a closer look at the situation for the Republicans. First off, remember that, at the end of the day, this is a race for delegates. To win the Republican nomination, a candidate needs to garner about 1,200 delegates. Here's where the three remaining GOP candidates currently stand (according to CNN):

McCain - 97
Romney - 74
Huckabee - 29

Clearly, none of these guys is truly within reach of actually wrapping the nomination up. There are 1,081 delegates at stake on Feb 5, so technically, even if one of them wins every single delegate, they would still not have officially captured the nomination. Anyway, it's pretty clear that no one's gonna make a clean sweep, so what really matters is how those delegates shake out.

McCain's Strongholds

New York. 101 delegates. This is the second largest pot of delegates (101) on Tuesday and the state is winner take all. McCain will win here on Tuesday (polling had him winning even before Giuliani dropped out). Bottom Line: +101 for McCain

Arizona. 53 delegates. McCain's home state. Winner take all. Bottom Line: +53 for McCain

New Jersey. 52 delegates. Giuliani's endorsement will bump up McCain's already substantial lead here. Winner take all. Bottom Line: +52 for McCain

Minnesota. 41 delegates. Minnesota's strong core of independents, along with its open caucus will give McCain a wide victory here. Delegates awarded proportionally. Bottom line: +20 to 30 delegates McCain

Connecticut. 30 delegates. Same as New Jersey. Winner take all. Bottom Line: +30 delegates for McCain

Delaware. 18 delegates. Not much recent polling, but Delaware's similarity to NY, NJ, and CT points to a McCain win. Winner take all. Bottom line: +18 for McCain

Total for McCain so far: +280 or so

Romney's Strongholds

Colorado. 46 delegates. Pre-Florida polls have Romney pretty far ahead here (and no impact from Giuliani). If that holds, Romney can hope to pick up about half or more of Colorado's delegates. Bottom line: +20 to 30 delegates for Romney

Massachusetts. 43 delegates. Though he probably wouldn't win reelection as governor here, Romney will still carry MA in the GOP primary. Delegates mostly awarded based on the winner of each congressional district. Bottom line: +25 to 35 for Romney

Utah. 36 delegates. Nearly every major elected official in Utah belongs to the Church of Latter Day Saints. Winner take all. Bottom line: +36 for Romney

Total for Romney so far: + 90 or so

Huckabee's Stronghold

Arkansas. 34 delegates. Huckabee's home state. Some delegates awarded based on Congressional district (CD), some statewide. Bottom Line: +34 for Huckabee

Total for Huckabee so far: +34 or so

Let's pause and look at the scoreboard after taking into account these 10 states.

McCain: ~ 380
Romney: ~ 160
Huckabee: ~ 60

The Big Battlegrounds.

California. 173 delegates. There hasn't been any polling since Giuliani dropped out and Schwarzenegger endorsed, but the latest polls show this as a dog-fight. McCain is ahead right now, and recent events will probably push him up more. Romney should be spending a lot time here this weekend. Delegates awarded by CD.

Georgia. 72 delegates. Polling has this as a three-way race, with McCain currently ahead. This is one of those places where Huckabee and Romney are splitting the Conservative vote and giving McCain a lead. Delegates awarded by CD.

Illinois. 70 delegates. This one's a reprise of Michigan. Midwest battleground state; open primary; economic messaging. McCain v. Romney.

Missouri. 58 delegates. Huckabee and McCain are leading here, with Romney a close third, but this one is winner take all--no prize for a close second.

Tennessee. 55 delegates. This one should be Huckabee's but McCain's momentum is giving him a good run. Delegates awarded by CD.

Alabama. 48 delegates. Same as Tennessee. Half of the delegates are awarded by CD, the other half to the popular vote winner.

The Rest

Oklahoma
Montana
North Dakota
Alaska
West Virginia

150 delegates combined.


More to come.