GOP Race: Is It Over?

Not yet. McCain's victory on Tuesday puts him in good position to win the nomination, and, for the first time since voting started, gives the GOP a clear front-runner for the party base to rally around. But...Romney still has a chance.

Romney's hope is that he can get it down to a one-on-one with McCain. McCain has still not won among Conservatives and Republicans (even in closed-primary Florida, McCain was boosted by self-described moderates and independents), so Romney thinks that if it's a two-man race, the GOP base will back him over McCain.

Unfortunately for Romney, there are two major obstacles to this strategy. First, Huckabee is still drawing a sizable chunk of Conservative Republicans. Those folks would likely migrate to Romney if Huckabee were out, but he's not yet. Second, Giuliani's exit means that whatever support he was drawing away from McCain will not flow back. With Huckabee in and Giuliani out, Romney's at a disadvantage. Huckbee knows that his presence hurts Romney and I think he's fine with that. The scuttlebut is that Romney is not well-liked among the GOP candidates and also Huckabee's angling for a spot on McCain's ticket.

I still doubt that McCain can knock Romney completely out next Tuesday, although it is possible. More likely is that Huckabee stays in through Super Tuesday, mortally wounding Romney by attracting delegates that would otherwise go to him, and then he drops out once it becomes nearly impossible for Romney to win.

Later, I'll post a Super Tuesday, state-by-state analysis for the GOP race.