Several polls have now been taken and Americans want to see a debate tomorrow night. And people in Oxford, Mississippi really want to see a debate tomorrow night. They have invested millions of dollars and several years(!) planning for this, and even the Republican Governor got in front of the cameras today and made it clear he wants a debate tomorrow night.
Could Mississippians feel sufficiently snubbed by McCain as to put the state in play? Certainly, if David Letterman's reaction to being blown off by McCain is any indication (which, of course, it's not), then some folks in Oxford might be feeling pretty darn angry with the Republican candidate for President.
What would it take for Obama to win in Mississippi? A few months back, after Obama's huge primary win there, I produced this graph (at right).
It shows that, in order for Obama to win Mississippi, he would need big African American turnout (say, 38 or 39% of the electorate), win 90 or 95% of African Americans, and then win upwards of 20 to 25% of the white vote (Kerry won 14% of the white vote). Those are some tall orders.
There have been two relatively recent polls of Mississippi, and they both show basically the same thing. ARG has the race as McCain 55, Obama 39, and Research 2000 has the race as McCain 52, Obama 39. Looking internally, the polls have Obama winning 11% and 14% of white voters, and then 88% and 80% of black voters (incidentally, both polls have a sample size of 600 likely voters).
Now, let's imagine that McCain's snub has its biggest affect in Oxford and NE region of Mississippi. That region makes up about a quarter of the state's electorate, and right now, according to the Research 2000 poll, McCain is winning that region 57-34. A swing of 5 percent of the population (-5 to McCain +5 to Obama) in this region and 2 percent in the other parts of the state would leave the race at McCain 49, Obama 42. That leaves about 8% undecided, if we give 1% to 3rd party candidates. According to both polls, most of the undecided voters, interestingly, are Black. Assuming Obama wins the vast majority of these Black undecided voters (say 70%), that would be a 5 point boost, bringing Obama up to 47%. Close, but no cigar.
The fact is, the underlying structure of the electorate in Mississippi is too heavily weighted in McCain's favor (just like Pennsylvania is too heavily weighted against him). I think it is possible, if people in Mississippi are angry about the debate shenanigan, that you could see some polls showing Obama a bit closer here then he was before, but in reality, it's too far a reach for him barring absolutely massive African American turnout.
No comments:
Post a Comment