Illinois 14th

Though Wyoming held its Presidential primary contest this past weekend, it was a smaller race in Illinois that really should have dominated the headlines. In the Illinois 14th, Democratic candidate Bill Foster defeated Republican candidate Jim Oberweis in a special election to fill retiring Congressman Dennis Hastert's seat. Congressman Hastert, you might remember, was Speaker of the House for about a decade.

Now, to really get a proper sense for why this race matters so much, you have to know that the Illinois 14th encompasses large swaths of Kane County, Kendall County, Dekalb County, Lee County, and Henry County. In 2004, every one of those counties voted for George Bush over John Kerry, some by as much as 23 points (Kendall County). Denny Hastert never faced a serious challenger, and in 2006 won reelection by 20 points. This, friends, is a GOP district. And yet, on Saturday, the 14th Congressional District of Illinois elected a Democrat.

If there is anyone out there who had serious thoughts about the GOP retaking control of the House, then this weekend should have put those ideas to bed. I think the results pretty clearly show that voters, while unhappy with congress in general, are still more willing to give the Democrats more time and are loathe to put the Republicans back in charge.

Does this have any implications for the Presidential race? Maybe, but I would be careful about extrapolating too far. There were some Illinois specific circumstances with this race (like the fact that Oberweis is a terrible candidate for anything, having lost about a billion races before this) that make it hard to generalize any results too much. Having said that, the 14th is not a swing district and whenever one party loses a seat from their "base," it does not bode well for them.