The Way Forward

With the first two contests behind us, where does the 2008 election go from here?

Michigan.

Next Tuesday, the Michigan Republicans and Democrats will hold their primary. However, only the Republican race will mean anything. Last year, the Democratic party set up some rules to try to bring some semblance of order to the primary calendar. The rule was that no state (except New Hampshire and South Carolina) could hold its primary before February 5. Michigan and Florida both broke those rules and moved their primaries earlier. In fact, it was Michigan's decision to hold its primary on January 15 that prompted New Hampshire to move its contest up to the eighth. There were two additional consequences. Not wanting to appear insulting to New Hampshire voters, most of the major Democratic candidates took their names off of the ballot. So when Michigan Dems go to the polls next week, they will find only Senator Clintons's name. Of course, they can still write in Barack Obama or John Edwards or Ronald McDonald, but most won't bother. The second consequence was that the Democratic party stripped Michigan of its delegates to the national convention for breaking the party rules. This means that even when Senator Clinton wins Michigan in a landslide, she won't win any actual delegates and therefore will be no closer to the nomination. The combination of Obama not contesting the race and the fact that it has no material impact means that no one will be paying any attention to the Democrats on the 15th.

Not so the Republicans. There has been no recent polling out of Michigan but there is good reason to think that this will be a close, three-way race. Mitt Romney was born in Michigan and his father was a three-term Governor of the state. John McCain scored a big victory in Michigan in 2000 with Independents and cross-over Democrats helping him across the finish line. Mike Huckabee is looking at the significant Evangelical community (about 24% of the total voters in the 2004 general election) to give him a boost. According to the more recent polls, taken a month ago, all three were essentially tied at around 20%, with Giuliani also scoring significant support.

I have no doubt that there will be 10 or 15 polls of for the Michigan race by the end of the weekend, and I will reserve my predictions (suspect, though they are) for next Monday. For now, suffice it to say that this race is probably not a do-or-die situation for any of these candidates, but some do need the win more than others. Huckabee has a stronghold coming up in South Carolina, where he is likely to win, so he's not really sweating this (though a surprise victory here, in a northern swing state, would be huge for him). Giuliani is betting all his chips on Florida on January 29, so he's not worried. But the real focus of this race will be Romney and McCain again. In a lot of ways, McCain's in the tougest position. After Michigan is South Carolina, where Huckabee is really strong and Nevada, which is a closed caucus (meaning only Republicans get to vote, no independents). Neither of those are good bets for McCain. Then its Florida, where Giuliani will make his first (and perhaps last) stand, and where Huckabee has been surging. Then its Super Tuesday. If McCain doesn't win Michigan, he's going to limp into Super Tuesday without much momentum or press coverage. McCain's campaign is not in great financial shape, and a loss next Tuesday could make what's left of his coffers dry up pretty fast. A win, on the other hand, would probably allow him to spend his money (strategically) and go into Super Tuesday focused on states he could win.

Romney's situation is different. He's won "silver," as he puts it, twice now. That's not great, but he's actually ahead in terms of delegates and he's got an essentially endless campaign warchest (because he's using his own personal fortune). That means he could just keep chugging along, winning some delegates here and there (and Michigan is yet another state that does not award its delegates on a winner-take-all basis -- second and third place winners will get some spoils too), while everyone else splits each state. It's not the strategy he'd prefer, but it means that winning first isn't everything for Romney.

Now, I think the pundits will try to label this race as a "last chance" for Romney, but expect to hear his campaign shift some of the emphasis to later states, indicating that he's in it for a lot longer yet. It would be odd for the delegate leader in the GOP race to drop out, especially if he picks up yet more delegates in Michigan.

So...Michigan this week. Then we all turn our attention to Nevada and South Carolina.

Update: An earlier version of this post incorrectly suggested that supporters of Barack Obama and John Edwards could write in their names on the Michigan ballot. It turns out that Michigan law prevents write-ins for candidates who have not authorized a write-in campaign, and neither Senator Edwards nor Senator Obama have done so.