Sunshine Showdown

Florida.

The Everglades. Disneyworld. My Grandfather (and perhaps yours).

Electoral turning point?

The GOP race in Florida (going on as we speak) is shaping up to be a crucial contest for three out of four candidates. Here's the skinny on each:

McCain - A win here cements his status as front-runner and signals to GOP rank and file that, if they want to get behind the winner, McCain's the guy. Florida's primary is also the first closed primary (meaning that only registered Republicans can vote) and McCain definitely wants to prove that he can win loyal members of his party, and not simply rely on independents to carry him. A loss here would not be devastating. McCain is likely to do well on Super Tuesday in the Northeast, as well as his home state of Arizona and probably California as well. A loss here doesn't change that, but it could mean lower vote totals in places like Missouri, Colorado (where he is already trailing a bit), and Minnesota.

Romney - Winning Florida would be a huge boost for him. Romney's "strength" as a candidate is that he can theoretically appeal to all the different parts of the GOP base. Unlike the other candidates, all of whom have at least one part of the base who dislikes/distrusts them, Romney could pull the whole party together -- if only anyone actually liked him. Romney's problem is that the GOP electorate isn't sure he's the real deal. They'll get behind him if he shows he's viable. Up until now he's won in Wyoming (yawn), Nevada (lots of Mormons), and Michigan (born there, dad was governor). If Romney wins in Florida, he'll get a second look from a lot of the GOP base.

Giuliani - Is this the end of Mayor Giuliani? Tune in tonight to find out. For months the former NY mayor has been saying that Florida would be his springboard into Super Tuesday and the nomination. He essentially skipped everything else up until now, and as a result, Ron Paul currently has received more votes and won more delegates than Giuliani. If he comes in a distant third, as the current polls indicate, then he's finished. He is already polling behind McCain in New York (in NEW YORK, for goodness sakes) as well as New Jersey. If Giuliani loses tonight, any remaining support he had will disappear.

Huckabee - Perhaps wisely, Governor Huckabee decided not to fully compete in Florida. He read the tea leaves, decided he couldn't win here with his current resources, and so minimized his losses by getting out. A likely fourth place finish here won't hurt him, since no one's expecting him to do well. He's focusing on Super Tuesday Southern states where he's likely to pick up a nice pot of delegates.

Next post: my (utterly useless) predictions.