McCain +1% (meaning he got 1% more than I predicted him to get)
Romney +2%
Huckabee -1%
Giuliani +0.6%
Paul -1.5%
Thompson -1.5%
Not bad at all. And I made another prediction that was right: "Early reports are suggesting that turnout is way up, and people in the state are expecting around 500,000 votes to be cast today, which would be a record. My guess is that it'll be a little higher than that."
Turnout, with 98% reporting, was 522,069.
I wrote, "I'd guess the Dem totals gets close to 300,000 and the GOP will be up towards 250,000."
Dems: 285691
GOP: 236378
Not bad.
Of course all of this is just a way of avoiding the fact that I got the Democratic race so very wrong. More on that in the next post.
1 comment:
OK, here's my theory on Hillary, along with a prediction. (I guess a blog is the best place to try out half-baked theories and predictions--no offense to the Maker of This Blog).
I think Obama's candidacy is actually helping Hillary. When she was first talking about running and then began to run, people said: No, she can't win: too radical, a woman, too "Clinton," from new York, etc. Those people who worried most about beating the Republicans worried that Hillary was not "mainstream" enough to get that done. Whether she in fact was or not, judging by her record, positions, votes, etc. was, as yet less relevant.
Now with Obama's candidacy, he becomes the "radical" or nontraditional candidate; because he's black, because of his unusual family background and because his positions, e.g. on Iraq, are more clearly delineated than those of Hillary Clinton. So, in comparison to him, Hillary is now the mainstream candidate. At this point, with Obama on the rise, those who worry most about beating the Republicans worry that Obama can't do that--as much as they may like him. This then creates a move towards Hillary, esp. among "undecided." All that was/is needed is for her to show that she can win, which she did in New Hampshire.
Now the prediction part. As long as she doesn't really stumble and continues to come in 1st or 2nd, she will win in the end. I think even if Obama continues to be strong, in fact especially if he does, she will do well because she is no longer the "candidate who can't beat the Republicans," Obama is. Further, I think this will be especially so if John McCain gets the GOP nomination. Obama will have powerful charisma and appeal but it will be hard to counter the long and fervent desire to get the Republicans out of the White House and I am betting that, with that in mind and Obama to the "left" so to speak, Hillary will win.
And now I am reminded of what a very wise man once said: "Every time I get the urge to make a prediction, I lie down until it passes." Too late.
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