Here are my thoughts on today's contests.
In Nevada, both the Democrats and the Republicans are holding their caucuses. On the GOP side, it seems pretty clear that Mitt Romney will take away a victory (making him the first candidate to win two contests in a row). He is the only one really campaigning here, so that should allow him to take the prize.
The Democratic race will be much closer. Senator Clinton had a big lead (20 points or more) in NV as recently as December, and she has the backing of most of the Democratic party establishment (including Majority Leader Harry Reid's son). Obama made a big splash last week by picking up the endorsement of one of NV's most important unions: the culinary workers. This, along with his Iowa victory, gave him a significant boost in the state. The most recent polls show Clinton still in the lead, although much more narrowly (5 or 6 points).
One other interesting note about Nevada. Last week, Edwards was polling in the 20's, and now he is polling in the low 10's (the most recent poll has him at 6%). Where are his supporters going? Well, interestingly, it seems like they are splitting rather evenly between the two frontrunners. Take the following two polls:
January 9-14: Clinton - 35, Obama - 32, Edwards - 25
January 17-18: Clinton - 45, Obama - 39, Edwards - 6
Clinton gained 10, Obama gained 7.
So, what's my prediction? Well, I wasn't able to use my combined polling method because there haven't been enough polls. So the following is basically gut feeling combined with pure conjecture:
Clinton - 43
Obama - 40
Edwards - 13
My guess is that Clinton will eke out a relatively narrow victory in Nevada, which she will characterize as a big victory. By picking up the Culinary Workers' endorsement, Obama gained instant credibility in the state, making the contest competitive. When Clinton wins, in spite of that endorsement, she will be able to call it a "big comeback," just like New Hampshire.
Luckily for Obama, there will be much bigger news today. The Republican contest in South Carolina is going to get much bigger coverage. As the TV networks will no doubt say, over and over again, no Republican has won the nomination without South Carolina. Combined with that is the fact that there is a very interesting, and close race in SC. McCain and Huckabee are battling it out here. McCain needs a victory here to prove that he can win among actual Republicans (he actually narrowly lost among self-identified Republicans in New Hampshire). For Huckabee's part, he needs to get back in the "Win" column. It's been two weeks since Iowa and his meteoric rise is threatened if he can't get back in the spotlight and the media loses interest.
Here are my predictions (again, based on gut feeling and conjecture):
Huckabee - 33
McCain - 29
Thompson - 16
Romney - 14
Paul - 4
Giuliani - 3
Next post, after the results.
2 comments:
Keep the postings coming. I love your blog. i am really into this race like I've never been before because of you. Go Obama!
In Nevada Hillary did much better than expected (at least by this blog). People keep underestimating her. She defeated Obama soundly among women and Hispanics--the latter will be an important constituency in the general election. It looks like Edwards is toast.
Remember my earlier post about Obama's canidacy helping Hillary. Here's another prediction; Romney's win in Michigan was an outlier. He won't win enough others on Super Tuesday to stay in the race.
But how do you explain McCain doing so well in S. Carolina? Huckabee is an evangelical, from a southern state. Of course he is still close and we (those who want to beat the Republicans) can continue to hope he will get the nomination. But McCain did so much better here than in 2000 despite the same dirty tricks tried vs. him as before.
Keep the blogs coming.
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