Head to Head

More in our continuing series of Q&A.

TTF asked:

"Today [my husband] heard some kind of poll that suggested that if McCain ran against Obama today, or if Hillary ran against Romney today, there wouldn't be much of a difference between them. I know how ridiculous polls like this can be, but how possible do you think it would be for the Republicans to end up winning the presidency?"

TTF is right to question the validity of general election match-up polls this far out, and before we even know who the candidate is. Four years ago, a Fox News poll taken on January 21 and 22, showed President Bush beating John Kerry by 7 points, 49-42, while an ARG poll had John Kerry edging out Bush 47-46. A month later, a CBS poll had John Kerry up 8 points, 50-42. These polls did not give us any clue as the final outcome. Rather, they give you somewhat of a sense of each candidate's base of support. None of the early polls had either candidate below 41 or 42%, so that gave us a good idea that this would be a close race, fought out among the 18 or 19% of "undecideds."

So what do the early polls for this contest show? Here are the results of a recent LA Times poll:

Clinton	46		Obama	41
McCain	42		McCain	42
Clinton	50		Obama	46
Romney	39		Romney	35
Clinton	51		Obama	47
Huckabee	38		Huckabee	37
Clinton	53		Obama	49
Giuliani	37		Giuliani	32

And, just to round it out, here are the results from a recent Wall Street Journal Poll:

Clinton	44		Obama	42
McCain	46		McCain	42
Clinton	52		Obama	48
Romney	36		Romney	35
Clinton	50		Obama	55
Huckabee	41		Huckabee	35
Clinton	52		Obama	54
Giuliani	37		Giuliani	34

So what do all these numbers tell us. I'd say that, like the early polls from 2004, they indicate floors of support. All told, we have eight different numbers for each Democrat, and four different numbers for each Republican. The lowest that Hillary Clinton goes, out of all 8 numbers, is 44%. That seems to be her floor. Using the same idea, here are all the candidates' "floors:"

Clinton 44%
Obama 39%
McCain 42%
Romney 35%
Huckabee 35%
Giuliani 32%

Of course, with more polling we can get an even better sense, but it is interesting to note that Senator Clinton seems to have the highest floor. It looks like she starts with the largest base of support, the largest group of folks who are gonna vote for her, as opposed to the Republican nominee, no matter what. On the Republican side, it's John McCain, no contest. The other three have far lower floors.

These floors do not necessarily mean that Clinton and McCain are the strongest general election candidates (although I think McCain clearly is the GOP's best chance). When it comes down to it, the election will still be won and lost among those 18-20% of "swing" voters. Clinton starts at 44% but can she close the deal on another 6%?

This is all very fun and interesting, but let's end with where we began. A lot can and will happen between now and November, and these polls are only a snapshot of voter preferences right now. They are not necessarily good predictors.